Right-wing coalition wins; BTP-bund spread widens modestly then stabilises.
Pre/post market reaction
| Window | IT 10Y Δ | DE 10Y Δ | Spread Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0.00pp | 0.00pp | 0.00pp |
| 1w | +0.01pp | +0.15pp | -0.14pp |
| 1m | +0.01pp | +0.15pp | -0.14pp |
| 3m | +0.11pp | +0.36pp | -0.25pp |
Yields at monthly resolution; sub-month windows interpolated. pp = percentage points.
Domestic political risk
Repricing concentrated locally.
Inference scores
predictive
confidence: highPre-event abnormal yield movement exceeds post-event movement.
Early warning63/100
Abnormal yield move before the event (90d proxy).
Reaction50/100
Abnormal yield move after the event (1m / 3m).
Constraint38/100
Lead/lag band: no-signal.
Amplification0/100
Post-event move beyond pre, on a crisis backdrop.
Confidence70/100
Severity × benchmark coverage × data coverage.
v1 scores use a simple factor model on monthly yields. See docs/METHODOLOGY.md.
AI Inference
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