9th sovereign default; restructuring of $65bn; spreads remain elevated.
Pre/post market reaction
| Window | AR 10Y Δ | US 10Y Δ | Spread Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0.00pp | 0.00pp | 0.00pp |
| 1w | 0.00pp | 0.00pp | 0.00pp |
| 1m | -0.40pp | +0.03pp | -0.43pp |
| 3m | -1.92pp | -0.07pp | -1.85pp |
Yields at monthly resolution; sub-month windows interpolated. pp = percentage points.
Default risk repricing
Sovereign credit stress dominates.
Inference scores
predictive
confidence: highPre-event abnormal yield movement exceeds post-event movement.
Early warning100/100
Abnormal yield move before the event (90d proxy).
Reaction99/100
Abnormal yield move after the event (1m / 3m).
Constraint85/100
Lead/lag band: early-signal.
Amplification0/100
Post-event move beyond pre, on a crisis backdrop.
Confidence90/100
Severity × benchmark coverage × data coverage.
v1 scores use a simple factor model on monthly yields. See docs/METHODOLOGY.md.
AI Inference
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